Exploring the Impact of Chronic Diseases and Health Spending on the Libyan Economy: An ARDL Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54361/LJMR.19.2.09Keywords:
Chronic diseases, Health expenditure, Political instability, ARDL, Inflation, Economic growth, LibyaAbstract
Purpose: This study explores the intricate relationship between chronic diseases, government health expenditure, political instability, inflation, and economic growth in Libya from 1990 to 2022. It aims to understand the short- and long-term effects of these variables on economic performance. Materials and Methods: Utilizing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, annual data were analysed to understand both short- and long-term impacts. Results: Findings demonstrate that government health expenditure significantly contributes to economic growth, while the increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular conditions and diabetes, poses economic burdens through reduced productivity and heightened healthcare costs. Political instability and inflation are identified as major negative influences on growth, with cumulative reductions of 3.97% and 1.46%, respectively. Conclusion: The study underscores the importance of targeted health interventions and chronic disease prevention programs to mitigate economic strain. Policy recommendations emphasize investment in healthcare infrastructure, strategic management of chronic diseases, monetary policy reforms, and institutional stability to support sustainable development.
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